In our recent blog post on Loss and Damage, we explored the climate change impacts attributable to slow-onset events (similar to sea-level rise) and extreme weather events. These various kinds of events leading to losses and damages are also implicit within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘Reasons For Concern’ (RFCs). The newest assessment (Working Group II (WG2) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)) finds that for a given level of warming, these climate-related risks are higher than previously assessed.
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<p>Many specific hazards are monitored on a continuous basis by climate research centres. For instance, we previously checked out how sea level rise is monitored and the actions that may be taken in response to changing sea levels. Earlier this week, we also explored how climate attribution science compares modelled worlds with and without human greenhouse gas emissions or other human or natural drivers of climate change to quantify the influence of human-caused climate change on extreme weather and climate events.</p>
<h2>Is climate attribution enough?</h2>
<p>Dr Richard Jones OBE is a Science Fellow on the Met Office. He explained that “the extent of losses and damages, each economic and non-economic, during an extreme event shall be determined by the dimensions of the hazard (meteorological and hydrological), along with the exposure and vulnerability of the people, communities, infrastructure or ecosystems impacted. Currently, much attribution science is targeted on the hazard. Nevertheless, in recent times confidence has increased that detected impacts on ecosystems and human systems globally are attributable to climate change, including the impact of utmost events (IPCC WGII AR6).”</p>
<p>Studies have analysed lack of life from individual cold-and heat-related events1 and monetary losses from flooding2. But attributing a wide selection of quantifiable and more qualitative impacts poses challenges, similar to learn how to incorporate vulnerability or assess the ‘value’ of cultural impacts. Addressing that is an lively area of research3.</p>
<p>Extreme event impact attribution itself is a growing area of research and there’s a diversity of views amongst experts on the potential role extreme event attribution has to play in Loss and Damage decision-making4. Key evidence gaps relate to the shortage of climate impact monitoring and data in some regions.</p>
<p>On the subject of the exposure and vulnerability of communities to an extreme event, an added layer of complexity arises when considering climate change adaptation and the impact this had or could have had on the impact of an event. We discussed this challenge last 12 months in a blog post on adaptation monitoring, and earlier this 12 months the UK’s Climate Change Committee published their Adaptation Monitoring Framework. Nevertheless, this framework acknowledges the challenges that also remain similar to the interdependencies between sectors and other societal goals, and the incontrovertible fact that adaptation needs are very location and context specific.</p>
<h2>Met Office expertise</h2>
<p>As a worldwide leader in weather and climate science and their many applications, the Met Office expertise spans observations and monitoring, developing and applying weather and climate information, and cutting-edge science including climate change attribution. Not only does this allow us so as to add our research to the growing evidence-base in reports similar to those produced by the IPCC, but in addition places us able to support society directly in understanding the impacts of climate change and the way these may be addressed.</p>
<p>We work with UK Government departments, industry and business, hydro-met and climate organisations in other nations and their stakeholders to share our science and expertise and to develop climate services which might help inform adaptation and increase resilience within the UK and beyond.</p>
<p>Richard concluded: “The discussion around Loss and Damage is a fancy one, but climate science can play an element in increasing understanding and providing evidence to tell decision-making. Organisations similar to the Met Office proceed to develop climate science and might help to integrate this with research and knowledge from other specialisms similar to those throughout the social sciences.”</p>
<p>Footnotes<br />
1 Christidis, N., Donaldson, G.C. and Stott, P.A., 2010. Causes for the recent changes in cold-and heat-related mortality in England and Wales. Climatic Change, 102(3), pp.539-553.; Mitchell, D., Heaviside, C., Vardoulakis, S., Huntingford, C., Masato, G., Guillod, B.P., Frumhoff, P., Bowery, A., Wallom, D. and Allen, M., 2016. Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 11(7), p.074006. and<br />
Gasparrini, A., Masselot, P., Scortichini M., Schneider, R., Mistry, M., Sera, F., et al 2022. Small-area assessment of temperature-related mortality risks in England and Wales: a case time series evaluation. The Lancet Plantetary Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00138-3<br />
2 Schaller, N., Kay, A.L., Lamb, R., Massey, N.R., Van Oldenborgh, G.J., Otto, F.E., Sparrow, S.N., Vautard, R., Yiou, P., Ashpole, I. and Bowery, A., 2016. Human influence on climate within the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nature Climate Change, 6(6), pp.627-634. and<br />
Environment Agency Flood and coastal erosion risk management report: 1 April 2019 to 31 March 2020, updated March 2023.<br />
3 Mechler, R., Bouwer, L.M., Schinko, T., Surminski, S. and Linnerooth-Bayer, J., 2019. Loss and damage from climate change: Concepts, methods and policy options (p. 557). Springer Nature<br />
4 King, A.D., Grose, M.R., Kimutai, J. et al. Event attribution will not be ready for a significant role in loss and damage. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13, 415–417 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01651-2</p>
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