Following the victory of Senator Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, Democrats will retain control in the Senate next year, even if the Republicans win December’s second election in Georgia. While Tuesday’s elections were a remarkably good result for the president’s first term party, the individual performances of the Senate candidates varied greatly.
The arrows show how many counties voted more Republican or Democratic in the 2022 Senate races than in the 2020 presidential election.
Source: Results data from The Associated Press on Sunday at 12.00 The arrows are only shown for counties that have submitted nearly all of their votes. Look notes below for more information on the data.
New York Times
Some of the Democrats who won improved President Biden’s margins in 2020, while others did worse but still kept their seats. Some have won victories, while Democratic candidates for other offices in their states have struggled to win. The reasons vary – some faced weaker opponents backed by Trump, while others ran around in states where issues such as democracy and abortion were particularly important.
Most competitive states
Margin developments since 2020 have been mixed in the most competitive states. Several of the winning Democrats have surpassed Biden, most notably Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, who defeated Republican newcomer Blake Masters by 6 points since Saturday. (This number may change as more votes are counted.) In Wisconsin and North Carolina, the victorious Republicans slightly surpassed Trump, while author JD Vance won Ohio with a smaller lead than the former president.
+1.8 points Dem.
Hassan did better
than Biden
Arizona ›
Mark Kelly (D) wins
+5.4 points Dem.
Kelly did better
than Biden
+3.2 points Dem.
Fetterman did better
than Biden
Georgia ›
Rafting on December 9
+0.7 points Dem.
Warnock did better
than Biden
Nevada ›
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) wins
+1.7 points Representative.
Cortez Masto fared worse
than Biden
+1.6 points Representative.
Johnson was doing better
than Trump
+2.3 points Representative.
Budd was doing better
than Trump
Poland >
JD Vance (R) wins
+1.5 points Dem.
Vance went worse
than Trump
The Senate is racing 10 points or less. Margins are subject to change as the rest of the votes are counted in each state.
Solid democracies
Some of the biggest changes since 2020 have occurred in all blue states. Democrat candidates from New York, Maryland and Connecticut won comfortably but much smaller margins than Biden.
Hawaii>
Brian Schatz (D) wins
+15.8 points Dem.
Schatz did better
than Biden
Vermont ›
Peter Welch (D) wins
+4.8 points Dem.
Welch was doing better
than Biden
Poland >
Chris Van Hollen (D) wins
+7.0 points Representative.
Van Hollen fared worse
than Biden
+5.2 points Representative.
Blumenthal went worse
than Biden
United States >
Tammy Duckworth (D) wins
+3.4 points Representative.
Duckworth went worse
than Biden
New York>
Chuck Schumer (D) wins
+9.9 points Representative.
Schumer was doing worse
than Biden
Colorado ›
Michael Bennet (D) wins
+0.2 points Representative.
Bennet did worse
than Biden
Margins are subject to change as the rest of the votes are counted in each state. California, Oregon and Washington are not shown as too few votes were reported to make comparisons.
Solid republican states
While Republican Senate candidates in the red states were more inclined to improve Trump’s margins in 2020, they lost some ground in several states.
Iowa ›
Charles E. Grassley (R) wins
+4.0 points Representative.
Grassley was doing better
than Trump
Missouri ›
Eric Schmitt (R) wins
+2.1 points Dem.
Schmitt did worse
than Trump
Florida ›
Marco Rubio (R) wins
+13.1 points Representative.
Rubio did better
than Trump
Indiana ›
Todd Young (R) wins
+4.7 points Representative.
The young were doing better
than Trump
Kansas ›
Jerry Moran (R) wins
+8.7 points Representative.
Moran did better
than Trump
+2.4 points Dem.
Paul did worse
than Trump
+14.2 points Representative.
Scott did better
than Trump
+6.5 points Dem.
Mullin did worse
than Trump
Idaho ›
Mike Crapo (R) wins
+1.1 points Representative.
Crapo did better
than Trump
Oklahoma ›
James Lankford (R) wins
+0.9 points Dem.
Lankford was doing worse
than Trump
Arkansas ›
John Boozman (R) wins
+7.2 points Representative.
Boozman was doing better
than Trump
Alabama ›
Katie Britt (R) wins
+10.3 points Representative.
Britt did better
than Trump
+17.3 points Representative.
Thune got better
than Trump
Margins are subject to change as the rest of the votes are counted in each state. Alaska, Louisiana, North Dakota, and Utah are not shown because the division of the candidate party in these elections does not allow comparable margins to be calculated.
Comparisons to other state races
In several competing states, voters have split their tickets by selecting a Senate candidate from a party other than their election as governor or secretary of state. New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, a Republican, won re-election with over 15 points. But Senator Maggie Hassan, a Democrat, also won re-election, defeating Don Buldoc, a far-right candidate who backed the false claim that the 2020 election had been stolen.
Competitive Senate races with a lead of 10 points or less are shown. North Carolina is not included as it has not had elections to other top state offices. Margins are subject to change as the rest of the votes are counted in each state.
In Georgia, Senator Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, advanced to the second round of the election against Herschel Walker, while Republicans Brian Kemp, the governor, and Brad Raffensperger, the secretary of state, won by a large advantage. In Pennsylvania, John Fetterman won the Senate elections, but his support lagged behind another Democrat and governor candidate, Josh Shapiro.
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