Inflation slows down in October, but home buyers still see the implications


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Because the housing market turns and turns just like the Formula 1 track, consumers place their home buying and selling plans on the service lane – waiting for the very best time to get back on course.

While time to shift gears shouldn’t be yet favorable, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday gave hope that the housing market will return to a more normal pace next 12 months.

In October, the inflation index for all items rose 7.7 percent year-on-year, the bottom annual increase from January’s record jump to 7.5 percent, in line with the most recent Consumer Price Index. Before Thursday’s report, analysts predicted that the index would increase by 7.9 percent, in comparison with September’s increase by 8.2 percent.

“The morning CPI figures were a welcome relief,” said Lorie K. Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Latest York Times. “But there continues to be a protracted solution to go.”

The “long road to go” may be found primarily in home inflation statistics, where tenants and buyers proceed to bear the burden of an increasingly volatile market suffering from rising housing costs, higher (though not record high) mortgage rates and other economic misfortunes.

In October, rental costs increased by 0.7 percent month-on-month and seven.5 percent year-on-year, respectively. Meanwhile, costs on the sales side grew barely slower – 0.6 percent. month on month and 6.9 percent. Every 12 months.

President Biden, after relatively positive mid-term results, said the October report is proof that his administration’s economic policy is working and inflation – including housing inflation – may reach a “soft landing” next 12 months.

“I’m optimistic because we’re still developing and we will not be approaching a recession when it comes to growth in a rational pace,” he said at a press conference on Thursday. “But I feel we may need what most economists call a” soft landing. ” I’m convinced that we’ll have the option to steadily lower prices in order that we don’t actually must go into recession to have the option to manage inflation. “

While the inflation report gave political leaders and the stock market an additional boost, the SP500 is well on course best every day CPI since 2008several housing economists provided a more subdued assessment of what the CPI report means for consumers.

Dr. Lisa Sturtevant | Source: LinkedIn

“Inflation fell from 8.2 percent in September, signaling that Fed actions are starting to have an effect,” Shiny MLS chief economist Dr. Lisa Sturtevant said in an emailed statement to Inman. “However the decline might not be enough to alleviate concerns about where the economy is ultimately going – and rates.”

“Even when rate hikes begin to decelerate inflation, the Fed will proceed to follow the trail of continuous rate hikes,” she added. “In consequence, we should always expect mortgage rates to stay high as well.

Sturtevant said higher mortgage rates coupled with the seasonal slowdown will halt buying and selling activity, and most consumers will decide to wait until spring in hopes of lower rates of interest and more leverage. chief economist Danielle Hale also said today’s report signaled the economy was moving in the suitable direction; nonetheless, it should take a while for consumers to see evidence of this of their bank statements.

Danielle Hale

“Not surprisingly, while mortgage rates have risen greater than 400 basis points from a 12 months ago, with greater than half of that increase previously 14 weeks, home buyers are reassessing their options, which have modified dramatically.” she said. in a written statement. “The monthly cost of a mortgage to purchase a typical home on the market at today’s 10 percent rate of interest is greater than $ 1,140 in comparison with last 12 months and greater than $ 475 since early August, when rates temporarily fell below 5 percent (4.99 percent).”

Beyond the associated fee of mortgages, Hale said rises in food, energy, and transportation prices will proceed to hit consumers twice and get them to reconsider their buying and selling strategies.

“While October wages were up 4.7 percent in comparison with the previous 12 months, October’s inflation figures suggested that these wages were capable of buy much less,” she said. “The newest survey data shows that only 16 percent of respondents said it was a very good time to purchase a house.”

Even so, this week we emphasize that even when it is not a very good time to buy, there are still customers available in the market for various reasons. ”

Sturtevant and Hale said the approaching months shall be mixed as some consumers could have to take care of hardship – mortgage applications have risen for the primary time in two months – and others will simply not have the option to address home costs, even when sellers will lower their asking prices.

“Nationally, the median home price is about five times the median household income,” said Sturtevant. “That is growing significantly in higher priced markets reminiscent of Los Angeles, where the median home price is greater than 11 times the everyday household income.”

“Even in markets where sellers are lowering the asking price, these adjustments will not be enough to deal with the affordability challenge,” she added. “Within the high cost Washington DC, about 40 percent of sellers lower their asking price. But on average, they’re only cutting prices by 6 percent, which implies homes still sell greater than 15 percent greater than before the pandemic. “

Despite the increasingly choppy waters, the inflation report was enough to push several double-digit real estate firms into trading after lousy third-quarter profits.

At 12:00 noon EST, Compass (COMP) had increased 25.95 percent to $ 2.33 per share. Redfin (RDFN), even after the news of the layoffs and the close of iBuyer, rose 34.10 percent to $ 4.38.

EXp Realty (EXPI) and Opendoor (OPEN) shares increased by 13.77 percent and 31.45 percent, respectively, to $ 12.60 per share and $ 1.98 per share. Anywhere (HOUS) share price rose 7.82 percent to $ 7.08.

The Federal Reserve will announce one other rate hike on December 14.

Send an email to Marian McPherson

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